Credit Crisis: The First Year

From Marketwatch:

Why the change?

In light of the recent bleak macro-economic and political environment, I felt it was best to symbolize my feelings about the world by changing the layout of this page to black. It symbolizes the demise of Bear Stearns, the 20%+ drop in the markets, the record oil prices (oil is black!), and the potential for things to get worse, including - God seriously forbid - another war (with Iran).

Just remember, things always get darkest right before it gets pitch black. So, hang in there.

Hopefully, this will only be a temporary move and we'll be back to happy days again soon. In the meantime, tread carefully!

Gas price stopping you?

From Reuters:

A Nevada brothel is trying to stimulate business by offering free gasoline. ...

"It's rocking along. We're doing quite well. June and July historically are not big months," said [the owner].

Not sure how I should react to this - should I be disturbed about the prostitution aspect, or the fact that we're so easily lured into morally depraving activities? And, students of economics should note that prostitution is a normal and elastic good, at least according to this story.

"Family First" Mortage Corp Irony

As you may know, hundreds of mortgage lenders have had to shut down recently due to the ongoing economic hell / real estate recession.

Here's a voice recording from Family First Mortgage Corp that alerted employees who were terminated. You should listen to it - it's quite horrifying to know that a company will fire you in this manner. (Message courtesy of Implode-O-Meter).

http://ml-implode.com/info/fam-first-orig-message.mp3

So anyway, that's just the dire state of things these days.

Buns and Guns

Would you eat here?

Cool concept, eh?

11 Best Food You Aren't Eating

From the NYTimes:

1. Beets: Think of beets as red spinach, Dr. Bowden said, because they are a rich source of folate as well as natural red pigments that may be cancer fighters.
   How to eat: Fresh, raw and grated to make a salad. Heating decreases the antioxidant power.
2. Cabbage: Loaded with nutrients like sulforaphane, a chemical said to boost cancer-fighting enzymes.
   How to eat: Asian-style slaw or as a crunchy topping on burgers and sandwiches.
3. Swiss chard: A leafy green vegetable packed with carotenoids that protect aging eyes.
   How to eat it: Chop and saute in olive oil.
4. Cinnamon: May help control blood sugar and cholesterol.
   How to eat it: Sprinkle on coffee or oatmeal.
5. Pomegranate juice: Appears to lower blood pressure and loaded with antioxidants.
   How to eat: Just drink it.
6. Dried plums: Okay, so they are really prunes, but they are packed with antioxidants.
   How to eat: Wrapped in prosciutto and baked.
7. Pumpkin seeds: The most nutritious part of the pumpkin and packed with magnesium; high levels of the mineral are associated with lower risk for early death.
   How to eat: Roasted as a snack, or sprinkled on salad.
8. Sardines: Dr. Bowden calls them “health food in a can.'’ They are high in omega-3’s, contain virtually no mercury and are loaded with calcium. They also contain iron, magnesium, phosphorus, potassium, zinc, copper and manganese as well as a full complement of B vitamins.
   How to eat: Choose sardines packed in olive or sardine oil. Eat plain, mixed with salad, on toast, or mashed with dijon mustard and onions as a spread.
9. Turmeric: The “superstar of spices,'’ it may have anti-inflammatory and anti-cancer properties.
   How to eat: Mix with scrambled eggs or in any vegetable dish.
10. Frozen blueberries: Even though freezing can degrade some of the nutrients in fruits and vegetables, frozen blueberries are available year-round and don’t spoil; associated with better memory in animal studies.
    How to eat: Blended with yogurt or chocolate soy milk and sprinkled with crushed almonds.
11. Canned pumpkin: A low-calorie vegetable that is high in fiber and immune-stimulating vitamin A; fills you up on very few calories.
    How to eat: Mix with a little butter, cinnamon and nutmeg.

Any surprises?

Captured Alive

To bring a story that I posted here earlier to a close:

The fugitive hedge fund swindler Samuel Israel III surrendered to law enforcement officials on Wednesday, ending a manhunt that began shortly after he faked his suicide on the day that he was to report to prison.

Source: NYTimes. Continued here.

The man's a fool. He'd probably have gotten a lot less than 20 years had he just served his term. Now, he'll probably be in for at least 20 years. Money isn't the end of it all now, is it?

Madness

Taken from the Washington Post:

The American Family Association obviously didn't foresee the problems that might arise with its strict policy to always replace the word "gay" with "homosexual" on the Web site of its Christian news outlet, OneNewsNow. The group's automated system for changing the forbidden word wound up publishing a story about a world-class sprinter named "Tyson Homosexual" who qualified this week for the Beijing Olympics.

The problem: Tyson's real last name is Gay. Therefore, OneNewsNow's reliable software changed the Associated Press story about Tyson Gay's amazing Olympic qualifying trial to read this way:

Tyson Homosexual was a blur in blue, sprinting 100 meters faster than anyone ever has....

Source: Washington Post. Continued here.

If anyone can please explain why they'd want to replace the word gay with homosexual, I'd really appreciate it.

I'm voting Republican

Midnight's Gone

Artist: Terri Clark
Song Title: Midnight's Gone

We got our first McDonald's
And it made the headline news
In a town where no one locks their doors at night
All the lights are flashing yellow
We just roll right through
And there is not a superstore in sight
But there's more to life
I told myself I'd say good-bye
By the time the clock struck twelve

But I can't pull the trigger on that changing world out there
With all these dreams I can't believe I'm still standing here
It's time to face the fact that I'm not the rebel that I thought
'Cause midnights gone but I'm not

Everyone I run into
Has known me all my life
There are no secrets you can call your own
Since the age of seventeen
I've faced the morning light
Saying this day is the day I'm gonna go
All I have to do is drive away
But the things that make me crazy
Always make me stay

But I can't pull the trigger on that changing world out there
With all these dreams I can't believe I'm still standing here
It's time to face the fact that I'm not the rebel that I thought
'Cause midnights gone but I'm not

It's time to face the fact I'm not the rebel that I thought
'Cause midnights gone, midnights gone
but I'm not

Life Is Good

Artist: Jo Dee Messina
Song Title: Life is Good

I used to think that life was all about the Joneses
Trying to find a way to just keep up some how
I had to have it, do it, be it, had to own it
A little secret that I finally figured out

We spend so much time climbing up the ladder
And then we're missing all the things that really matter

Chorus:
I've got my two feet on the ground
Breathin' in and breathin' out
Oh yeah
Life is good
I'm gonna grab on to today
Live every minute in the way I know I should
Life is good

I like to move, I like to run, I like to get it done
Or I can stay home on the couch and watch tv
Give me sunshine, give me rain, it makes no diffence to me
It's all the same, all the same to me

Call me simple, call me crazy
I believe that it's all in what we make yah

Repeat chorus

Call me simple, call me crazy
I believe that it's all in what we make yeah

"Jesus for President"

People pack churches to hear Shane Claiborne talk about "Jesus for President," the book he co-authored. The dreadlocked Christian activist from Philadelphia and his team parked a black school bus around the back. The hand-painted gold letters on the side read "Jesus for President." The bus runs on vegetable oil and, yes, it's a political statement. "It'll be a long time before we fight a war over used veggie oil," says Claiborne with a sly smile. Claiborne is touring the country, packing churches and community centers, in support of the book he and Chris Haw co-authored, "Jesus for President."

...

Young evangelicals represent an important swing-voting bloc. They're not a lock for Republicans as their parents were. Their feet are firmly planted on issues dear to both parties. Traditional family values are, as they have been in the past, an important issue.

But these voters say views on abortion and homosexuality won't define them in November. The environment and social justice are moving to the forefront of their discussions.

Taken from CNN. Emphasis added.

S&P 1170 Revisited

As many of you know, I'm generally an optimist. Yeah right, you may say to yourself. That's true - recently, I've turned increasingly bearish on the US economy.

Today, there's an article in Bloomberg that only adds more fuel to the fire that's burning our portfolios. The master, Warren Buffett, has spoken. And, he's not optimistic. In fact, "he's concerned about ``stagflation,'' or slowing in the U.S. economy while inflation accelerates," reports Bloomberg. You can access the article here.

Of course, Goldman today downgraded C and GM, just as they hit multi-year lows. C's new target is $11. That's right, $11. Wow. This, by the way, was after they upgraded the financials in March (post-Bear Stearns). So much for the big dogs that get paid muchos deniros. Indeed, f- Wall Street.

Let's take a look at a couple of charts here (thanks to stockcharts.com). No, it's not about technical analysis, it's about psychology this time. And what I see is bad, bad news. I have two charts: the first, is the Volatility Index (VIX) and the second is a S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

The VIX is a gauge of fear. As you can see, as the market has fallen rather precipitously recently, the VIX has not spiked like it did a few months ago as we touched these lows. Indeed, it seems to be true that a slow death is a painless death. We're like frogs in boiling water - we'll be dead before we know it. In addition to this semi-complacency, the S&P keeps breaking through major support levels. The next test is 1270s. If we break this, ladies and gentlemen, 1170 is a possibility. Remember 1170? That's right - I talked about it several months ago.

So, anyway, what I see is disturbing. There's still a lot of hope that the market will recover, while it keeps going down. This is a bad sign. What you want is for market participants to throw in the towel, be filled with fear and run away. They haven't done so yet, which only means that they will... one day. There are way too many oil bears out there, while oil simply keeps going up. We need oil bulls for the oil bubble to pop. Inflation is a concern. Economic growth keeps choking. Election uncertainty looms. All in all, stock some canned food and pray. That will serve you best.

$80.4 million for this...

I'll get back to work now.

US Marshals WANTED List

The Jayhawk's Nest loathes Wall Street thieves. They are vile creatures. Here's one - catch him and I'll buy you dinner.

Bradley Birkenfeld = Idiot

WSJ reports:

A former UBS AG banker pleaded guilty in federal court to helping a billionaire client evade taxes by hiding $200 million in assets in offshore accounts, a move expected to aid federal prosecutors in their probe of the Swiss banking giant.

Bradley Birkenfeld, 43 years old, answered softly when U.S. District Judge William Zloch asked him why he participated in the fraudulent tax scheme. "I was employed by UBS…I was incentivized to do this business," he said, standing, hands clasped behind him, at a podium before the judge.

Why the heck do they do these things!?! To make an extra 100K? I'm willing to bet that Birkenfeld was an extremely well paid and well respected fellow in his community. Now, he'll spend about 5 years in jail and pay at 250K penalty. By the way, I don't really think the monetary penalty is very high for these IBankers. Regardless, I just don't understand this stupidity.

Moral of the story: Dodgy business is dodgy business, no matter what. Stay away from it!

How do you feel?

Some days, we simply need to look to others to express ourselves. Today is such a day!

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair; we had everything before us, we had nothing before us. -- Charles Dickens

Doomsday: T minus N

Home price drop means $4 trillion in lost capital

The Risk Nightmare - Trillions in CDS markets, nothing to show for?

We have 25-year old 'super-bubble' - According to George Soros

As for the title, 0 < N < infinity.

I can think of nothing else right now, except:

"Dust thou art, and to dust thou wilt return."

My Partial Oil Solution

I have a partial solution to the volatility of oil prices. As you know, oil is priced in US dollars. Over the past several years, as the USD has gotten hammered, oil has continued its upward trajectory. Many so-called 'experts' agree that oil prices have an inverse relationship with the USD. Clearly, this sort of dependence is rather risky, as we're finding out in the current environment.

My solution - and I'm not sure if it's been suggested before, but I'm guessing that it's certainly not a novel idea - is to price oil using a basket of currencies. In other words, we should price oil as follows: 0.25 USD + 0.25 EUR + 0.25 YEN + 0.25 GBP. I've randomly picked YEN and GBP, but any other major currencies can be used. This also doesn't have to be an equal weighted index, but could use a different methodology. Either way, the point is that we need to reduce the volatility of an extremely important commodity like oil and its dependence on a single currency.

You can even take this further and price all commodities like this to avoid ridiculous rice and wheat riots.

Three Wooden Crosses

Continuing to explore the Purpose theme, Randy Travis makes an excellent point. I love this song.

Three Wooden Crosses by Randy Travis

A farmer and a teacher, a hooker and a preacher,
Ridin' on a midnight bus bound for Mexico.
One's headed for vacation, one for higher education,
An' two of them were searchin' for lost souls.
That driver never ever saw the stop sign.
An' eighteen wheelers can't stop on a dime.

There are three wooden crosses on the right side of the highway,
Why there's not four of them, Heaven only knows.
I guess it's not what you take when you leave this world behind you,
It's what you leave behind you when you go.

That farmer left a harvest, a home and eighty acres,
The faith an' love for growin' things in his young son's heart.
An' that teacher left her wisdom in the minds of lots of children:
Did her best to give 'em all a better start.
An' that preacher whispered: "Can't you see the Promised Land?"
As he laid his blood-stained bible in that hooker's hand.

There are three wooden crosses on the right side of the highway,
Why there's not four of them, Heaven only knows.
I guess it's not what you take when you leave this world behind you,
It's what you leave behind you when you go.

That's the story that our preacher told last Sunday.
As he held that blood-stained bible up,
For all of us to see.
He said: "Bless the farmer, and the teacher, an' the preacher;
"Who gave this Bible to my mamma,
"Who read it to me."

There are three wooden crosses on the right side of the highway,
Why there's not four of them, now I guess we know.
It's not what you take when you leave this world behind you,
It's what you leave behind you when you go.

There are three wooden crosses on the right side of the highway.