Are we seeing the end of suburbia?
A writer at Fast Company seems to think so. Check it out here.
My reaction:
1. While urban sprawl may not continue at the pace at which it once did, at least in the short-run i.e. the next 10-20 years, the sprawl that exists will continue to be developed.
2. Yes housing prices at many places have come crashing down and many vacant homes may be destroyed, but this will not end suburbia.
3. As long as the population of the country continues to rise, people will need a home.
4. Given our love for 'space' and 'personal bubbles,' suburbs will not die.
5. Good housing in the city is so incredibly expensive that it makes a lot of sense to buy a home outside of the city for a fraction of the cost. The data today show this. At some point, the prices of houses outside the city will come down to a point where people will see value in them and purchase them.
6. Inner city schools are, in general, terrible.
7. Telecommuting and working from home are catching on, and will continue to do so in light of corporate expenses and in an effort to slash them.
8. Companies are more likely to move to the suburbs, again as evidenced over the past decade or two, to take advantage of cheaper real estate and a calmer, friendlier environment.
9. Such articles almost always come at a trough of a cycle - when doom and gloom is the only supposed sensible prediction. I'll take the contrarian approach and say housing prices are about to turn soon, i.e. in the next 6-12 months.
10. The suburbia as we know will change, but everything as we know it will change over the years. It's always done so. Suburbia will become more efficient - homes may be smaller, homes may be more technologically advanced and energy savvy, there will be more hybrid/alternative fuel cars, suburbia may become more compact... but will it die? Yours truly says no way dude.
Anyway, the point is that it's an interesting article on a very applicable topic. I hope to revisit this entry in 2019 and then again in 2079 to see how it turns out.
Do you have thoughts? If so, share away! You, dear reader, have been very quiet - except leftarrow who gets a shout out for commenting!
3 comments:
I like this post. Insightful predictions. An important question that has yet been answered: When will we have flying cars?
Well, since I got a shout out, I guess I should keep commenting?
I have different thoughts on this. I think there's some truth to the article: it depends on which suburbs you're talking about. Something the author didn't discuss is the fact that some suburbs are going to "disappear" because they're going to become fully functioning cities in their own right.
Are there going to be some neighborhoods and housing developments that completely fail? Well, sure. They're ugly, they're overpriced, they have crappy construction and tiny yards and no trees, etc. There's nothing I would love more than seeing the repurposing of some of the hideous new developments that have sprouted up like fungus around here (and probably other places as well.)
I think it would be great to see smaller, sturdier, more *useful* housing come back in style, and I'd LOVE to see zoning changes that would allow mixed developments: retail+entertainment+housing+education, all within a few blocks.
But, like you said, I don't think those things mean the death of suburbia. I think they mean that suburbia might finally grow up a little bit!
Thanks you two for your comments.
Reno: Flying cars - I think that's out of the question with the state of the shambles courtesy of AIG et al, and the looming increases in energy prices when the turn occurs.
leftarrow: I like the way you think about it as 'growing up!' Indeed, the ugly ass, treeless, box shaped, home-depot-trodden 'hood will have to go. Let's hope nicer ones are left for us to enjoy.
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