Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Wall Street: A Castle built on Quick Sand?
When you hear stories like this one, amongst a myriad of others, combine it with Madoff and you start wondering if the financial 'American Dream' and Wall Street are simply castles that have been built on quick sand and will no longer stand on their own going forward. The banks and brokers are essentially doomed as indicated in their almost non-existent equity prices that continually approach 0. The idea of the American who could purchase whatever they wanted to on credit is pretty close to a dream these days (or a nightmare?), and the once stalwart investment known as your home or real estate is turning out to be a squishy little bug - as reported here ("Median housing prices in the Fort Myers metropolitan area have plummeted from $322,000 in December 2005 to less than $107,000 in December 2008, the Obama administration notes.") I find it interesting nonetheless that everyone keeps talking about 401Ks, IRAs, blah, blah, blah. We've just had a period of over 10 years where the stock market cleaned us out, yet here we go again: "buy paper so that others can work and you can hopefully become rich." It's absurd. Just because the markets performed exceptionally well between 1980 - 2000, is no indication that they will, yet I think we all want to believe that will be the case. Selective memories? This market will get a lot worse before anything improves. Next in line to go: retailers - one of the largest employers in the country. And, with that, goes jobs - millions more of them. And with that, a much weaker consumer, i.e. significantly weaker sales... am I talking myself into a vortex? It's coming, but man do I hope that I am dead wrong in my pessimism.
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2 comments:
Jayhawk-
Sorry, have not commented in awhile but would like to get back into the swing of things. Looking back, its amazing that the stock market has wiped out 10+years of gains, peoples life savings obliterated, and the dream of home ownership has turned into a nightmare. Yet Americans continue to be optimistic that things will turn around. What this tells me is that not enough people have truly 'felt' this downturn/recession/depression. What you find interesting also interests/sickens me. There is still so much talk about 401k's and IRA's that people still hang onto it as their sole means of retirement. I dont suggest that we abandon contributions whatsoever but what needs to happen is that people need to SAVE more. this does not mean put more into your 401k. It means move money from your checking to your savings account and dont touch it until youre at least 65 years of age. Yes this means <8% average returns and yes this means you wont be able to spend as much today but this method of retirement planning has worked for countless years and is proven!
Whats the alternative? Blindly putting your entire future in the hands of a Madoff/Stanford type creature so that one day you will be ruined. All because you are not willing to settle for a modest return.
That's right man... Risk and return go together. I think people think forgot the first part of the equation (risk) and only focused on return... whoops!
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