I'm voting Republican

Midnight's Gone

Artist: Terri Clark
Song Title: Midnight's Gone

We got our first McDonald's
And it made the headline news
In a town where no one locks their doors at night
All the lights are flashing yellow
We just roll right through
And there is not a superstore in sight
But there's more to life
I told myself I'd say good-bye
By the time the clock struck twelve

But I can't pull the trigger on that changing world out there
With all these dreams I can't believe I'm still standing here
It's time to face the fact that I'm not the rebel that I thought
'Cause midnights gone but I'm not

Everyone I run into
Has known me all my life
There are no secrets you can call your own
Since the age of seventeen
I've faced the morning light
Saying this day is the day I'm gonna go
All I have to do is drive away
But the things that make me crazy
Always make me stay

But I can't pull the trigger on that changing world out there
With all these dreams I can't believe I'm still standing here
It's time to face the fact that I'm not the rebel that I thought
'Cause midnights gone but I'm not

It's time to face the fact I'm not the rebel that I thought
'Cause midnights gone, midnights gone
but I'm not

Life Is Good

Artist: Jo Dee Messina
Song Title: Life is Good

I used to think that life was all about the Joneses
Trying to find a way to just keep up some how
I had to have it, do it, be it, had to own it
A little secret that I finally figured out

We spend so much time climbing up the ladder
And then we're missing all the things that really matter

Chorus:
I've got my two feet on the ground
Breathin' in and breathin' out
Oh yeah
Life is good
I'm gonna grab on to today
Live every minute in the way I know I should
Life is good

I like to move, I like to run, I like to get it done
Or I can stay home on the couch and watch tv
Give me sunshine, give me rain, it makes no diffence to me
It's all the same, all the same to me

Call me simple, call me crazy
I believe that it's all in what we make yah

Repeat chorus

Call me simple, call me crazy
I believe that it's all in what we make yeah

"Jesus for President"

People pack churches to hear Shane Claiborne talk about "Jesus for President," the book he co-authored. The dreadlocked Christian activist from Philadelphia and his team parked a black school bus around the back. The hand-painted gold letters on the side read "Jesus for President." The bus runs on vegetable oil and, yes, it's a political statement. "It'll be a long time before we fight a war over used veggie oil," says Claiborne with a sly smile. Claiborne is touring the country, packing churches and community centers, in support of the book he and Chris Haw co-authored, "Jesus for President."

...

Young evangelicals represent an important swing-voting bloc. They're not a lock for Republicans as their parents were. Their feet are firmly planted on issues dear to both parties. Traditional family values are, as they have been in the past, an important issue.

But these voters say views on abortion and homosexuality won't define them in November. The environment and social justice are moving to the forefront of their discussions.

Taken from CNN. Emphasis added.

S&P 1170 Revisited

As many of you know, I'm generally an optimist. Yeah right, you may say to yourself. That's true - recently, I've turned increasingly bearish on the US economy.

Today, there's an article in Bloomberg that only adds more fuel to the fire that's burning our portfolios. The master, Warren Buffett, has spoken. And, he's not optimistic. In fact, "he's concerned about ``stagflation,'' or slowing in the U.S. economy while inflation accelerates," reports Bloomberg. You can access the article here.

Of course, Goldman today downgraded C and GM, just as they hit multi-year lows. C's new target is $11. That's right, $11. Wow. This, by the way, was after they upgraded the financials in March (post-Bear Stearns). So much for the big dogs that get paid muchos deniros. Indeed, f- Wall Street.

Let's take a look at a couple of charts here (thanks to stockcharts.com). No, it's not about technical analysis, it's about psychology this time. And what I see is bad, bad news. I have two charts: the first, is the Volatility Index (VIX) and the second is a S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

The VIX is a gauge of fear. As you can see, as the market has fallen rather precipitously recently, the VIX has not spiked like it did a few months ago as we touched these lows. Indeed, it seems to be true that a slow death is a painless death. We're like frogs in boiling water - we'll be dead before we know it. In addition to this semi-complacency, the S&P keeps breaking through major support levels. The next test is 1270s. If we break this, ladies and gentlemen, 1170 is a possibility. Remember 1170? That's right - I talked about it several months ago.

So, anyway, what I see is disturbing. There's still a lot of hope that the market will recover, while it keeps going down. This is a bad sign. What you want is for market participants to throw in the towel, be filled with fear and run away. They haven't done so yet, which only means that they will... one day. There are way too many oil bears out there, while oil simply keeps going up. We need oil bulls for the oil bubble to pop. Inflation is a concern. Economic growth keeps choking. Election uncertainty looms. All in all, stock some canned food and pray. That will serve you best.

$80.4 million for this...

I'll get back to work now.

US Marshals WANTED List

The Jayhawk's Nest loathes Wall Street thieves. They are vile creatures. Here's one - catch him and I'll buy you dinner.

Bradley Birkenfeld = Idiot

WSJ reports:

A former UBS AG banker pleaded guilty in federal court to helping a billionaire client evade taxes by hiding $200 million in assets in offshore accounts, a move expected to aid federal prosecutors in their probe of the Swiss banking giant.

Bradley Birkenfeld, 43 years old, answered softly when U.S. District Judge William Zloch asked him why he participated in the fraudulent tax scheme. "I was employed by UBS…I was incentivized to do this business," he said, standing, hands clasped behind him, at a podium before the judge.

Why the heck do they do these things!?! To make an extra 100K? I'm willing to bet that Birkenfeld was an extremely well paid and well respected fellow in his community. Now, he'll spend about 5 years in jail and pay at 250K penalty. By the way, I don't really think the monetary penalty is very high for these IBankers. Regardless, I just don't understand this stupidity.

Moral of the story: Dodgy business is dodgy business, no matter what. Stay away from it!

How do you feel?

Some days, we simply need to look to others to express ourselves. Today is such a day!

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair; we had everything before us, we had nothing before us. -- Charles Dickens

Doomsday: T minus N

Home price drop means $4 trillion in lost capital

The Risk Nightmare - Trillions in CDS markets, nothing to show for?

We have 25-year old 'super-bubble' - According to George Soros

As for the title, 0 < N < infinity.

I can think of nothing else right now, except:

"Dust thou art, and to dust thou wilt return."

My Partial Oil Solution

I have a partial solution to the volatility of oil prices. As you know, oil is priced in US dollars. Over the past several years, as the USD has gotten hammered, oil has continued its upward trajectory. Many so-called 'experts' agree that oil prices have an inverse relationship with the USD. Clearly, this sort of dependence is rather risky, as we're finding out in the current environment.

My solution - and I'm not sure if it's been suggested before, but I'm guessing that it's certainly not a novel idea - is to price oil using a basket of currencies. In other words, we should price oil as follows: 0.25 USD + 0.25 EUR + 0.25 YEN + 0.25 GBP. I've randomly picked YEN and GBP, but any other major currencies can be used. This also doesn't have to be an equal weighted index, but could use a different methodology. Either way, the point is that we need to reduce the volatility of an extremely important commodity like oil and its dependence on a single currency.

You can even take this further and price all commodities like this to avoid ridiculous rice and wheat riots.

Three Wooden Crosses

Continuing to explore the Purpose theme, Randy Travis makes an excellent point. I love this song.

Three Wooden Crosses by Randy Travis

A farmer and a teacher, a hooker and a preacher,
Ridin' on a midnight bus bound for Mexico.
One's headed for vacation, one for higher education,
An' two of them were searchin' for lost souls.
That driver never ever saw the stop sign.
An' eighteen wheelers can't stop on a dime.

There are three wooden crosses on the right side of the highway,
Why there's not four of them, Heaven only knows.
I guess it's not what you take when you leave this world behind you,
It's what you leave behind you when you go.

That farmer left a harvest, a home and eighty acres,
The faith an' love for growin' things in his young son's heart.
An' that teacher left her wisdom in the minds of lots of children:
Did her best to give 'em all a better start.
An' that preacher whispered: "Can't you see the Promised Land?"
As he laid his blood-stained bible in that hooker's hand.

There are three wooden crosses on the right side of the highway,
Why there's not four of them, Heaven only knows.
I guess it's not what you take when you leave this world behind you,
It's what you leave behind you when you go.

That's the story that our preacher told last Sunday.
As he held that blood-stained bible up,
For all of us to see.
He said: "Bless the farmer, and the teacher, an' the preacher;
"Who gave this Bible to my mamma,
"Who read it to me."

There are three wooden crosses on the right side of the highway,
Why there's not four of them, now I guess we know.
It's not what you take when you leave this world behind you,
It's what you leave behind you when you go.

There are three wooden crosses on the right side of the highway.

For an 'Obamacon,' Communion Denied

An incredible article in the Washington Post about "Douglas Kmiec, a staunch Republican, firm foe of abortion and veteran of the Reagan Justice Department, [who] had been denied Communion."

Access the article here.

My quick take:

This is what you get when you have little people with a little power - the so-called little Napoleon wannabes - who don't think past their first step. The priest's actions, in my opinion, are completely out of line for so many reasons including: 1) Kmiec does not support Obama because of abortion; 2) Kmiec is staunchly against abortion; 3) the priest is clueless on Kmiec's relationship with God... and on and on. I almost want to say that priests like this dude ought to be excommunicated for being the antithesis of Christ's love. But, I won't advocate that.

Thankfully, though, people like this particularly priest are a minority in the Catholic Church. And, even more thankfully, there are priests who understand what it is like to be an individual outside of the confines of a church building.

As always, the Jayhawk's looking to hear your opinions, especially on this particular topic!

"The Same People"

Not sure if you saw this, but a reader posted the following article regarding the gay marriage topic: http://www.newsweek.com/id/139423. It's a quick read and one that's worth your 90 seconds.

"Do You Love the Job, or Just the Paycheck?"

An excellent article in the NYTimes about a topic that has been discussed on Jayhawk's Nest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/01/jobs/01pre.html

"My sense of professional accomplishment was determined by the size of my bonus checks. I felt that my title and salary were all that I had to show for those long years of hard work, political maneuvering and Dilbertian despair.

"Like many of my co-workers, I thought I could eventually earn enough money to make up for the fact that I dreaded going to work every day. Then I would be happy, I told myself...

"But in fact, my high-paying but soul-draining job was beginning to take a toll on my personal life."

Oh so true, so true, so true, so true... and take away the 'high' from 'high-paying' and you begin to spell life with new letters: "m. i. s. e. r. y!"

Read the article and let me know what you think!

You're Gonna Miss This

A good reminder to those on the fast-track to nowhere...

You're Gonna Miss This

She was staring out the window of their SUV
Complaning, saying "I can't wait to turn 18"
She said "I'll make my own money, and I'll make my own rules"
Mamma put the car in park out there in front of the school
Then she kissed her head and said "I was just like you"

You're gonna miss this
You're gonna want this back
You're gonna wish these days hadn't gone by so fast
These are some good times
So take a good look around
You may not know it now
But you're gonna miss this

Before she knows it she's a brand new bride
In a one-bedroom apartment, and her daddy stops by
He tells her "It's a nice place"
She says "It'll do for now"
Starts talking about babies and buying a house
Daddy shakes his head and saysAnd s "Baby, just slow down"

Cause you're gonna miss this
You're gonna want this back
You're gonna wish these days hadn't gone by so fast
These are some good times
So take a good look around
You may not know it now
But you're gonna miss this

Five years later there's a plumber workin' on the water heater
Dog's barkin', phone's ringin'
One kid's cryin', one kid's screamin'
And she keeps apologizin'
He says "They don't bother me.
I've got 2 babies of my own.
One's 36, one's 23.
Huh, it's hard to believe, but...

You're gonna miss this
You're gonna want this back
You're gonna wish these days hadn't gone by so fast
These are some good times
So take a good look around
You may not know it now
But you're gonna miss this"

--Trace Adkins

A Dilemma

In a suburb of a big town near a big city in a big state in the Midwest, there lived two friends. Their names were Eks and Wye. As their friendship grew over the years, they began to love each other. A lot. So they decided to do what people who love each other do - get married.

Eks and Wye are Pozlots - that's the name of their religion. The Pozlots have a very sacred text called the Winkrut. On page seven, paragraph 3 of the Winkrut, it says: "Any two individuals who decide to commit to each other in a long-term relationship must get married....Furthermore, the couple can be man-man, woman-man, woman-woman, neuter-man, neuter-woman, neuter-neuter. Irrespective, the two must get the blessings of the deity and the yutlutz" (akin to a Catholic priest, Protestant minister, Hindu priest, Jewish rabbi, etc).

So, Eks and Wye went to the Pozlots' sacred house - called a Riszeim - and got married. It made them immensely happy. Two weeks ago, they decided to buy a house, together as a couple. So, they visited a Realtor and looked for houses. Last week, they found a house which they both loved and so they decided to buy it. In the process of completing the paper work and obtaining the mortgage, the bank asked Eks and Wye, "Is this is a tenancy by the entirety purchase?" Eks responded, "Well yes, of course! We're married!" So, as is standard procedure, the bank clerk asked for a formal marriage certificate issued by the US government to prove that the individuals were married for the purpose of property law.

The next day, Eks and Wye went to the county court to obtain a marriage license and the county clerk said to them, "Hi! Welcome to the United States' Most Accepting County Courthouse! How may I help you?" Eks proceeded to ask for a marriage license. He showed the Pozlot religious marriage license which they had received from the yutlutz as proof that vows were exchanged with Wye.

After a brief moment, the clerk said, "Don't mind me asking, but you two look alike. I mean, you know, you both don't look like either girls or boys. Sorry, but what's your gender? I need to write it down so that I know the groom and bride." Eks and Wye respond, in unison, "Well, we're neuter." Wye went on to explain, "We were castrated when we were five and now we're neuter."

So, should the clerk proceed with the process of issuing a marriage license or not?

The Chain of Love

What would an ideal world be like? Clay Walker answers in the following song:

The Chain Of Love

He was driving home one evening,
In his beat up Pontiac
When an old lady flagged him down,
Her Mercedes had a flat
He could see that she was frightened,
Standing out there in the snow
'Til he said I'm here to help you ma'am,
By the way my name is Joe

She said I'm from St. Louis,
And I'm only passing through
I must have seen a hundred cars go by,
This is awful nice of you
When he changed the tire,
And closed her trunk
And was about to drive away,
She said how much do I owe you
Here's what he had to say

You don't owe me a thing, I've been there too
Someone once helped me out,
Just the way I'm helping you
If you really want to pay me back,
Here's what you do
Don't let the chain of love end with you

Well a few miles down the road,
The lady saw a small cafe
She went in to grab a bite to eat,
And then be on her way
But she couldn't help but notice,
How the waitress smiled so sweet
And how she must've been eight months along,
And dead on her feet

And though she didn't know her story,
And she probably never will
When the waitress went to get her change,
From a hundred dollar bill
The lady slipped right out the door,
And on a napkin left a note
There were tears in the waitress's eyes,
When she read what she wrote

You don't owe me a thing,
I've been there too
Someone once helped me out,
Just the way I'm helping you
If you really want to pay me back,
Here's what you do
Don't let the chain of love end with you

That night when she got home from work,
The waitress climbed into bed
She was thinkin' about the money,
And what the lady's note had said
As her husband lay there sleeping,
She whispered soft and low
Everything's gonna be alright, I love you, Joe

Don't Worry

Written By Rebecca St. James and Matt Bronleewe

On the corner of Fifth and Broadway
I was walking to the grocery store on Third
I saw a man up on a box
He seemed a little unorthodox
He was preaching up a storm
As I walked on by he said

Don't worry about your life
Cause if you hold it too close
You'll lose it
Don't worry about your life
So won't you let go
Before it's gone

A little further on I saw a beggar on the street
He asked for change and then gives me his life story
Says he was a millionaire, made some bad decisions there
Now a dollar fifty could feed him for a week
And he said

Don't worry about your life
Cause if you hold it too close you lose it
Don't worry about your life
So won't you let go
Before it's gone

Then I see the birds
I watch them fly
They've got everything they need
They show me why I can be free
Knowing You will care for me

Finally at the grocery store
My mind is filled with many thoughts
As I bump into a girl I knew from high school
She said "What's different about you girl?"
And I smiled and said this is what I know is true
And I'll pass it right along to you

Don't worry about your life
Cause if you hold it too close you lose it
Don't worry about your life
So won't you let go before it's gone

Fed speech comparison

Taken from the Wall Street Journal.