So what if it's not CO2 - cut it off anyway!

Today I'll take the other side of my last blog and assume that excessive release of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases is not the root cause of global warming. Indeed many would argue that this is a fair assumption.

I still believe that it is a good idea to be vigilant of our consumption of fossil fuels and control the amount of CO2 emission. Doing so helps us in at least two ways: reducing foreign dependence on oil and reducing health risks.

I don't live in the Middle-East and do not support being dependent on them. We've all heard the argument and know the implications - depending on others for a resource as vital as crude oil is simply a ticking time-bomb. Rather, if policies encourage the research and the use of alternatives to crude oil, not only does it decrease aggregate demand (and possibly price assuming the cartel does not also cut supply drastically), but it also reduces the emission of CO2 amongst other gases that pose a longer-term health hazard. Have you been to Los Angeles or perhaps seen the air above a major city during the day, for instance during take-off or landing on an airplane? The revolting sight of brown smog will be enough to change your mind on our love affair with burning fossil fuels.

Global Warning

Over the past several months, I've come across several articles addressing global warming. Several articles in the recent issues of The Economist and Fast Company - two of my favorites - have discussed the issue at great length. Both magazines have had articles that accept global warming as a reality and encourage policies and practices on a national as well as personal level that may help reduce carbon dioxide emission - the chief cause of global warming.

In particular, I urge you to read "How Many Lightbulbs Does it Take to Change the World? One. And You're Looking At It." that may be accessed here (http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/108/open_lightbulbs.html).

I came across a short article by Jeremy Siegel (found here) - an economist at the University of Pennsylvania - that sheds more light at the issue and, more importantly, the consequences if global warming continues at currently projected paths. The impacts are devastating to say the least:

The seas could be 10 feet higher in a mere 60 years. Of the five largest cities in the United States (New York, LA, Chicago, Houston, and Philadelphia), only Chicago and... Philadelphia would not be seriously impacted.... And goodbye to New Orleans and trillions of dollars of real estate that lines our coasts. The economic consequences of rising waters would be catastrophic.

(Note: Kansas will not be affected!)

Solving global warming, on the other hand, is no easy feat. But, we've got to start somewhere and the relatively small cost to avoid complete destruction is worth it - call it cost/benefit or risk/reward analysis or whatever else.

Naturally, then, I've come to believe that this is a serious issue and a solution lies in our everyday actions.

Where am I?

Most of you know this by now: I'm engaged! Hence, I'm occupied for now, but will return here later!

By the way, if you own ANN - I feel your pain!

Oops, I goofed!

Well, I was off on my ANN analysis. The stock tanked after my posting. Actually, what happened was that it failed to breakthrough and as I had cautioned the RSI was getting into overbought territory. The kicker was the weak retail sales that came in from several chains. That, my friends, is the market for you - a roller coaster ride!

ANN: Breakthrough!

This is a very bullish chart for ANN. Since early July when it made a high above 44, it's had a hard time breaking through the price level, forming a fairly substantial resistance level. The price level was re-tested in mid September only to retrace. Over the past three sessions, we've seen above average volume and some great action today to break above the resistance level. MACD is also very bullish.

So, what should a trader do here?

Set stops and watch this baby carefully. The RSI is approaching overbought levels, but we may get an "over 70 RSI burst" move up... sit tight, this could be a nice long trade.

Strangers: the Bad, the Ugly, and the Kind

A devoted reader recently responded to my criticism of the city's unfriendliness by saying:

It seems to me that one of the major problems of urban life is that we are surrounded by strangers. We constantly interact with people we don't know, and this creates (or allows for) a little less kindness than we'd experience if we all knew our neighbors.

My response:

While I do agree that we increasingly interact with strangers in very large cities, why are the dynamics a lot different in smaller cities, but still of a decent size? For example, on a walk in the city of Charlotte, NC, I was greeted with more than one smile and 'hey'. Charlotte, of course, is no village. There, too, you run into strangers, but perhaps friendly strangers?

White Noise?

I've been quite bothered by the sirens and random distracting noises that exist within the city. Aside from the common ambulances and VIP Cadillac that zoom through loudly, there are several very obnoxious grates on the streets like the one on the corner of Virginia Avenue and E Street NW by the CVS. Do you know why they make such a deafening sound? It's like there's a supersonic jet preparing for take off underneath! My latest strategy is to avoid such routes.

'Homo Sapiens' or 'Homo Serpents'?

I feel the serious need to address an observation: the people of DC need to live a little and ease up. They are as hard as rock and think those who look like them are strange animals as opposed to simply fellow homo sapiens!

What am I talking about?

A friend and I went on a bike ride on one of the many trails in DC. We went north from Georgetown to Bethesda on the Capital Cresent Trail and back. It was an absolutely beautiful sunny October day, but the people on the trail - runners, joggers, and bikers alike - had a stern and very serious look on their faces. We tried to smile and wave at some of them, but either didn't get a response or received an unfriendly gesture. I don't get these people on the East Coast! Or, is it simply the demographic we came across - mostly wealthy city folk who are too consumed by themselves?

Hopefully, someone who's more familiar with these DC types will read this and let me know what's up.

Find Some Peace Here

This picture was taken in Rochers de Naye, Switzerland - a small resort town near Montreaux on Lake Geneva - visible in the picture.

Murder, Corruption, Sex, and the Economy

I, once again, have been absent for a while. However, I return. And this time, I hope to continue writing more frequently. I partially blame the fine weather over the past five months or so for keeping me away.

I'd like to address two serious matters that seem to be ubiquitous in the media lately: murder and corruption on Capitol Hill.

Let's start with murder. There are now at least four killing rampages to come to mind immediately that have occurred over the past two months. Two of these occurred in schools (in Colorado and the Amish community in PA) and the other two, most recently, involve entire families being shot. What the heck is going on? Why is this happening? Last night I read about a family that was shot to death on the side of I-95 in Florida. The reports included the following description: "The mother... was found clutching her two sons in an apparent effort to protect them." This is horrific. Simply gruesome. Why?

And, most recently, a family in Iowa was found shot to death - both parents and three children. What for? Why?

Is the second amendment at fault here, or is it simply an America that just doesn't get it? Or, have these things always been happening and because of the ease of communication today, I know about them? Peace be with the souls of all these individuals.

And then corruption and sex scandals on the Hill - Abramoff & Ney (see my post going back several months ago regarding the K-Street gutter), Foley's nasty sex addiction to pages, and most recently, Curt Weldon - a PA Republican congressman, is charged with using his influence to direct lobbying business to his daughter. Should elected officials, or just congressmen families or close relatives even be allowed to be lobbyists? Of course there's a conflict of interest bound to develop. Regardless, that's a topic for a different time. For now, what's important to note is that these are elected officials in the world's purportedly best democracy. I suppose we wouldn't know about the crimes if the democracy wasn't real, and it would be impossible to punish their crimes. The bottom line: it all amounts to greed for power and greed for the green.

This just in: there are, unbelievable but fortunately, good things happening too. The economy seems to be faring well, corporate earnings are coming in strong (I don't know whether that's necessarily a good thing, but it does mean the economy is strong), the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to make record highs and doesn't look like it will stop any time soon (I hope!). On a more personal note, there are always a plethora of things for which to be thankful.

I'll leave it at this for now and attach a picture for you to enjoy!

Some Favorite Stock Quotes

Theater Churches - Everywhere!

In Focus magazine did an article on theater churches. Much to my surprise, the article's picture captured your humble author!

Here it is: http://www.infocusmag.com/06march/multitasking.htm

Go Bradley... I mean Bucknell... what do I mean?

The Jayhawk family mourns the second straight loss in the first round of the NCAA tournament of their not-so-mighty basketball team, albeit 2006 Big 12 Champions. This time, it's Bradley. Does anyone see a trend? Last year it was Bucknell. Small school, relatively unknown, both start with B and are the underdogs.

I'm beating buy-and-hold

Once again, the path of least resistance, i.e. non blogging has taken root. Although, not really. I've been updating my trading thoughts.

Thought of the day is: my analysis on the market has been right. While I can't let hubris overcome me, I'm equally amazed!

Just a Note

  

Golfing on a Battle Site

 

The picture speaks for itself - a dude golfing at a Chancellorsville battle site. I really will not understand some people! 

Chancellorsville

 

At this site, a soldier was killed every second for five staight hours. It was an extremely bloody battle. The Confederates, however, maneuvered extremely well. Although outnumbered by Union troops, the brilliant General Thomas J Jackson helped bring victory to the Confederates. It is also here that Gen. Jackson was killed by his own men (from North Carolina, by the way!).

Date(s): April 30-May 6, 1863

Principal Commanders: Maj. Gen. Joseph Hooker [US]; Gen. Robert E. Lee and Maj. Gen. Thomas J. Jackson [CS]

Forces Engaged: 154,734 total (US 97,382; CS 57,352)

Estimated Casualties: 24,000 total (US 14,000; CS 10,000)

Result: Confederate victory - Lee's greatest victory?

* Above stats taken from http://www.cr.nps.gov/hps/abpp/battles/va032.htm 

Wilderness

 

There are two important Civil War battlesites between DC and Charlottesville, VA. After several months of promising myself I'd stop by one day, I finally did. This is one of the sites where the Battle at Wilderness took place - Saunders Field. Please note that the vegetation was extremely dense during the war, which made it an extremely difficult fight.

Battle dates: May 5-7, 1864 (I.e. after Gettysburg, towards the end of the war).

Forces Engaged: 162,920 total (US 101,895; CS 61,025)

Estimated Casualties: 29,800 total (US 18,400; CS 11,400)

Result: Inconclusive

*Above stats from http://www.cr.nps.gov/hps/ABPP/battles/va046.htm 

Here It Is - Day of Love

Dear devoted blog reader,

Merry Saint Valentine's day!

With lots of like,
A Jayhawk

DJIA - 2/11/2006

 


Here's the DJIA 6 months chart. Things to note:

1. Negative divergence on MACD, RSI indicated by the blue lines ("Take Note"). This indicates a downward bias and indeed that's what we've seen over the past 3 weeks.

2. Notice the 10,700 - 11,000 tight range over the past 3 months.

3. 50-day MA tested on 02/10/2006 intraday.

4. Note the support and resistance... the 10,730 support also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, i.e. 10700 is very critical!

So what now?

Let's look at fundamentals for a moment.

1. Profits - a few misses on the tech side, GOOG, AMZN, QSII.

2. Fed - doesn't look like they'll stop here even though the economy is exhibiting weakness - weaker GDP and productivity numbers.

3. Oil, Iran, Iraq - it's a mess. There's fear.

4. The yield curve - it is flat and NOT inverted - all y'all bears out there who keep saying it's inverted, get your fact right! Here are the most recent yields from Yahoo Finance:

Maturity Yield

3 Month 4.33
6 Month 4.48
2 Year 4.67
5 Year 4.58
10 Year 4.58
30 Year 4.55

The spread between the 3 month and 30 year US treasury is +22 basis points.
6 Month & 30 Year spread: +7 basis points.
2 Year & 30 Year spread: -12 basis points.

At worst it's inverted between 2 year and 30 year. But when you consider the 6 month, it's not. So, I'd say it relatively flat.

But, the bias certainly seems towards inverting. What does this mean? There's more confidence in longer term bonds than there is in shorter term bonds, i.e. investors are more confident of the US economy longer term than shorter term.

So, here's my take: I think the range continues, perhaps with a downward bias for the near-term. We could make it back to 11K but I don't see any reason to push above it - I expect 11,000 to continue to be a resistance, with 10,700 a near-term support.