Some Favorite Stock Quotes

Theater Churches - Everywhere!

In Focus magazine did an article on theater churches. Much to my surprise, the article's picture captured your humble author!

Here it is: http://www.infocusmag.com/06march/multitasking.htm

Go Bradley... I mean Bucknell... what do I mean?

The Jayhawk family mourns the second straight loss in the first round of the NCAA tournament of their not-so-mighty basketball team, albeit 2006 Big 12 Champions. This time, it's Bradley. Does anyone see a trend? Last year it was Bucknell. Small school, relatively unknown, both start with B and are the underdogs.

I'm beating buy-and-hold

Once again, the path of least resistance, i.e. non blogging has taken root. Although, not really. I've been updating my trading thoughts.

Thought of the day is: my analysis on the market has been right. While I can't let hubris overcome me, I'm equally amazed!

Just a Note

  

Golfing on a Battle Site

 

The picture speaks for itself - a dude golfing at a Chancellorsville battle site. I really will not understand some people! 

Chancellorsville

 

At this site, a soldier was killed every second for five staight hours. It was an extremely bloody battle. The Confederates, however, maneuvered extremely well. Although outnumbered by Union troops, the brilliant General Thomas J Jackson helped bring victory to the Confederates. It is also here that Gen. Jackson was killed by his own men (from North Carolina, by the way!).

Date(s): April 30-May 6, 1863

Principal Commanders: Maj. Gen. Joseph Hooker [US]; Gen. Robert E. Lee and Maj. Gen. Thomas J. Jackson [CS]

Forces Engaged: 154,734 total (US 97,382; CS 57,352)

Estimated Casualties: 24,000 total (US 14,000; CS 10,000)

Result: Confederate victory - Lee's greatest victory?

* Above stats taken from http://www.cr.nps.gov/hps/abpp/battles/va032.htm 

Wilderness

 

There are two important Civil War battlesites between DC and Charlottesville, VA. After several months of promising myself I'd stop by one day, I finally did. This is one of the sites where the Battle at Wilderness took place - Saunders Field. Please note that the vegetation was extremely dense during the war, which made it an extremely difficult fight.

Battle dates: May 5-7, 1864 (I.e. after Gettysburg, towards the end of the war).

Forces Engaged: 162,920 total (US 101,895; CS 61,025)

Estimated Casualties: 29,800 total (US 18,400; CS 11,400)

Result: Inconclusive

*Above stats from http://www.cr.nps.gov/hps/ABPP/battles/va046.htm 

Here It Is - Day of Love

Dear devoted blog reader,

Merry Saint Valentine's day!

With lots of like,
A Jayhawk

DJIA - 2/11/2006

 


Here's the DJIA 6 months chart. Things to note:

1. Negative divergence on MACD, RSI indicated by the blue lines ("Take Note"). This indicates a downward bias and indeed that's what we've seen over the past 3 weeks.

2. Notice the 10,700 - 11,000 tight range over the past 3 months.

3. 50-day MA tested on 02/10/2006 intraday.

4. Note the support and resistance... the 10,730 support also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, i.e. 10700 is very critical!

So what now?

Let's look at fundamentals for a moment.

1. Profits - a few misses on the tech side, GOOG, AMZN, QSII.

2. Fed - doesn't look like they'll stop here even though the economy is exhibiting weakness - weaker GDP and productivity numbers.

3. Oil, Iran, Iraq - it's a mess. There's fear.

4. The yield curve - it is flat and NOT inverted - all y'all bears out there who keep saying it's inverted, get your fact right! Here are the most recent yields from Yahoo Finance:

Maturity Yield

3 Month 4.33
6 Month 4.48
2 Year 4.67
5 Year 4.58
10 Year 4.58
30 Year 4.55

The spread between the 3 month and 30 year US treasury is +22 basis points.
6 Month & 30 Year spread: +7 basis points.
2 Year & 30 Year spread: -12 basis points.

At worst it's inverted between 2 year and 30 year. But when you consider the 6 month, it's not. So, I'd say it relatively flat.

But, the bias certainly seems towards inverting. What does this mean? There's more confidence in longer term bonds than there is in shorter term bonds, i.e. investors are more confident of the US economy longer term than shorter term.

So, here's my take: I think the range continues, perhaps with a downward bias for the near-term. We could make it back to 11K but I don't see any reason to push above it - I expect 11,000 to continue to be a resistance, with 10,700 a near-term support. 

And the winner is...

...Pittsburg Steelers!

But can someone explain the "world champion" title to me please?! "World" seems to imply more than just the United States. However, the Steelers haven't played any team outside of the United States! I think the rest of the world should sue the Superbowl for misusing the title "world champion"!

Once Again... Feb 14

The day of love is approaching soon. Love, of course, in the commercial sense. I hope you've been exhibiting love at every instance over the past year nonetheless!

My best friend once carved "Love always. Question often." It's stuck with me for years.

Nonetheless, I need your input for Feb 14. All ideas are welcome - please leave your response in the comments section of this blog!

I'll update with new pictures soon.

Purpose, revisited

It's often important to go back and revisit some old thoughts. Here is one I posted several months ago:

"Keep a clear eye towards life's end. Do not forget your purpose and destiny as God's creature. What you are in His sight is what you are and nothing more. Remember that when you leave this earth, you can take nothing that you have received... but only what you have given; a full heart enriched by honest service, love, sacrifice and courage."

- Saint Francis of Assisi, 1182-1226, Founder of the Franciscan Order

Her Favorite Place

 


Mmmmmm.... Your favorite place! You may not have been able to experience it in reality, but hopefully this will provide a virtual experience of some sort! 

"The Broker" vs. Abramoff

I'm currently reading "The Broker", another John Grisham classic. Interestingly, the current mess on K Street with Abramoff has several parallels to Grisham's story - it's actually quite timely to be #1. So the question is: Does Grisham know something we don't and is he trying to tell us something in his book?! Did he know about the Abramoff scandal before it broke?!

Of course Grisham does not know anything more than we do today. But, it's a great book for the current time.

More interestingly, the person sitting next to me a flight this evening was reading the same book and agreed that there are several parallels between the book and mess at the sewage known as K Street.

The K Street Gutter

K Street NW, Washington DC = a sewage.

The Washington Post reports "One of Washington's top lobbying operations will shut down at the end of the month because of its ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and former House majority leader Tom DeLay.

Alexander Strategy Group, which had thrived since its founding in 1998 thanks largely to its close connections to DeLay (R-Tex.), will cease to operate except for a relatively small business-development division, Edwin A. Buckham, the former top DeLay aide who owns the company, said yesterday."

Ford's Theater

 

This is where Abraham Lincoln was shot by John Wilkes Booth. 

Rock Creek Park

 

Aaah yes, take a stroll through Rock Creek Park with someone you love... it's lovely! 

The White House

 

Sorry, the President's in Texas... 

Squirrel with good taste!

 

Do I need to say anything more than check this picture out?!