Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Happy Tuesday!
Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens;
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens;
Brown paper packages tied up with strings;
These are a few of my favorite things.
When the dog bites,
When the bee stings,
When I'm feeling sad,
I simply remember my favorite things,
And then I don't feel so bad.
Wanna scream?
If you want to look like the dude on the left, you should read the following predictions by Byron Wien, Pequot Capital Management's Chief Investment Strategist:Byron Wien's 5 Sure Things for a Turbulent Market
Bob Brinker recap
Bob Brinker recap for Jan 27 - 28, 2008 can be found here.
http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz.blogspot.com/
http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz.blogspot.com/
Friday, January 25, 2008
Power vs Money
This research was retrieved from Bob O'Brien at Barron's. So, those financials may not be so cheap after all, eh? And those energy stocks that have gone up 100% or more... might still go up according to these numbers. You can find the entire article here.
So, power wins.
Jerome Kerviel
You may have heard by now that the global sell off on Monday may have partly been a result of Jerome Kerviel - the so-called "rogue trader" at Societe Generale in France. He purportedly lost the bank $7.1 Billion. Single-handedly. One man. 31 Years old. Incredible.
This supposedly resulted from placing massive bets that the European markets will go up in January. Until December 2007, he was massively in the black. So, he decided to counter his trading positions in late December, and he was dead wrong.
These are from reports I've picked up over the past two days.
Here's an interesting excerpt from the New York Times:
"But while the revelation of Mr. Kerviel’s fraud is hugely embarrassing to SocGen, the affair has not been entirely tragic, according to the Toronto-based Globe and Mail. On Thursday, The paper gleefully seized SocGen’s fraud-induced crisis as the underlying impetus for Tuesday’s surprise interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
This supposedly resulted from placing massive bets that the European markets will go up in January. Until December 2007, he was massively in the black. So, he decided to counter his trading positions in late December, and he was dead wrong.
These are from reports I've picked up over the past two days.
Here's an interesting excerpt from the New York Times:
"But while the revelation of Mr. Kerviel’s fraud is hugely embarrassing to SocGen, the affair has not been entirely tragic, according to the Toronto-based Globe and Mail. On Thursday, The paper gleefully seized SocGen’s fraud-induced crisis as the underlying impetus for Tuesday’s surprise interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
“U.S. borrowers, give thanks to an unlikely hero: Jerome Kerviel,” The Globe and Mail’s Boyd Erman wrote. “As you revel in the lower interest charges on your line of credit…think of how one brave Frenchman came to your rescue.”"
Thursday, January 24, 2008
The Fed's Grade: 'A.'
Many things have happened since that incredible day when the Fed acted.
There are a few things I'd like to say about the Fed action. Many believe that the Fed is bending over to Wall Street. People in this camp believe that the Fed has one job - to control inflation - and that if the major financial market indices show a weakening economy, the Fed should not take note. Tuesday morning's action was clearly a Fed reacting to the global financial markets.
The Jayhawk believes that is not only okay, it is good. It is vital. It is important and it is crucial for the Fed to listen to the financial markets.
Why?
Let's go back to the reason the Fed was created.
1. The Fed is seen as the big daddy of the finance world. When it speaks, people listen. When it is silent, people listen more and listen harder.
2. The Fed's main goal is monetary policy *and* regulation. (As most of you know, I believe the Fed should focus more on the latter and let the markets dictate the former.) It is clear that monetary policy is great at controlling inflation, but it is not so clear that is is very good at stimulating a contracting economy. The phrase "pushing on a string" is often used in this regard to illustrate that monetary policy has defined limits to accelerating economic growth.
3. The year is 2008. In the US alone, $14 Trillion (that's right, with a 'T') is in mutual funds. An additional $12 Trillion is in pension funds. These figures do not include other investments vehicles such as hedge funds and individual stock portfolios - retirement or otherwise. The point is this: the US financial markets - not just the stock market - have become a savings account for the average American.
4. Today's dynamic financial markets today have a lot more information available to them and are very good at pricing in risk. The markets have been indicating - for several months - that the Fed ought lower its target rate.
When there is a global financial market sell-off after a severe correction like we've had, i.e. 15% in a few weeks, this creates worry and tension in the consumer's mind. Again, the reason is that this affects an unprecedented number of people in unimaginable ways. Moreoever, there is a very large population of 'baby-boomers' waiting to retire, whose life savings are in stocks.
The Fed's action in staving off a panic was necessary. It is clear that an additional 5 - 10% correction to the already 15% would be disasterous to the mindset of the American consumer. There would be rampant fear. Most people act irrationally with money anyway, so many would sell their stock holdings, which would only make the situation worse. With massive losses, consumers would be affected negatively and a potentially severe recession could ensue. Two-thirds of the US economy is consumer driven. We are already dealing with a housing recession - there is no need to make things worse just so that "we can get over it". We may never get over it for decades if the Fed doesn't act when it has to.
The Fed's decision to restore confidence in the markets was important. Additionally, the liquidity created will hopefully restore credit markets back to normal. All this takes time, but it will heal.
To those who are worried about inflation - read my earlier posts. Core inflation remains low. Today's inflation numbers are high primarily due to higher energy prices, i.e. cost-push inflation. The Fed does NOT control oil prices - lowering rates does not automatically cause inflation. It almost sounds like the anti-inflation hawks would rather see inflation at 1% and unemployment at 10% with negative GDP growth for years. Get over it! Once the economic expansion is under way again, the Fed can raise rates to fight whatever inflation exists at the time. After all, it's much easier to slow down the economy.
Take a look at Europe. The ECB has been stubborn about inflation and refuses to cut its target rate. Well, take a look at the GDP growth and unemployment figures of European countries - they're much worse than America's. So what if their currency is stronger right now? Would you rather have a super strong currency and high unemployment?
So, let's reconsider the Fed's goals and see if it met them or not in Tuesday's action:
1. To address banking panics - CHECK.
2. Fostering a sound banking system and a healthy economy - CHECK.
3. To be responsive to local liquidity needs - CHECK.
The bottom line: Bravo Ben, Bravo! The Fed acted correctly - it gets an A grade. Had it been sooner, I'd have awarded it an 'A+'.
What grade do you give the Fed?
There are a few things I'd like to say about the Fed action. Many believe that the Fed is bending over to Wall Street. People in this camp believe that the Fed has one job - to control inflation - and that if the major financial market indices show a weakening economy, the Fed should not take note. Tuesday morning's action was clearly a Fed reacting to the global financial markets.
The Jayhawk believes that is not only okay, it is good. It is vital. It is important and it is crucial for the Fed to listen to the financial markets.
Why?
Let's go back to the reason the Fed was created.
The purpose and functions of the Federal Reserve include:
- to serve as the central bank for the United States
- to address banking panics
- to manage the nation's money supply through monetary policy
- fostering a sound banking system and a healthy economy
- facilitate the exchange of payments among regions
- strengthen U.S. standing in the world economy
- to be responsive to local liquidity needs
- to strike a balance between private interests of banks and the centralized responsibility of government
1. The Fed is seen as the big daddy of the finance world. When it speaks, people listen. When it is silent, people listen more and listen harder.
2. The Fed's main goal is monetary policy *and* regulation. (As most of you know, I believe the Fed should focus more on the latter and let the markets dictate the former.) It is clear that monetary policy is great at controlling inflation, but it is not so clear that is is very good at stimulating a contracting economy. The phrase "pushing on a string" is often used in this regard to illustrate that monetary policy has defined limits to accelerating economic growth.
3. The year is 2008. In the US alone, $14 Trillion (that's right, with a 'T') is in mutual funds. An additional $12 Trillion is in pension funds. These figures do not include other investments vehicles such as hedge funds and individual stock portfolios - retirement or otherwise. The point is this: the US financial markets - not just the stock market - have become a savings account for the average American.
4. Today's dynamic financial markets today have a lot more information available to them and are very good at pricing in risk. The markets have been indicating - for several months - that the Fed ought lower its target rate.
When there is a global financial market sell-off after a severe correction like we've had, i.e. 15% in a few weeks, this creates worry and tension in the consumer's mind. Again, the reason is that this affects an unprecedented number of people in unimaginable ways. Moreoever, there is a very large population of 'baby-boomers' waiting to retire, whose life savings are in stocks.
The Fed's action in staving off a panic was necessary. It is clear that an additional 5 - 10% correction to the already 15% would be disasterous to the mindset of the American consumer. There would be rampant fear. Most people act irrationally with money anyway, so many would sell their stock holdings, which would only make the situation worse. With massive losses, consumers would be affected negatively and a potentially severe recession could ensue. Two-thirds of the US economy is consumer driven. We are already dealing with a housing recession - there is no need to make things worse just so that "we can get over it". We may never get over it for decades if the Fed doesn't act when it has to.
The Fed's decision to restore confidence in the markets was important. Additionally, the liquidity created will hopefully restore credit markets back to normal. All this takes time, but it will heal.
To those who are worried about inflation - read my earlier posts. Core inflation remains low. Today's inflation numbers are high primarily due to higher energy prices, i.e. cost-push inflation. The Fed does NOT control oil prices - lowering rates does not automatically cause inflation. It almost sounds like the anti-inflation hawks would rather see inflation at 1% and unemployment at 10% with negative GDP growth for years. Get over it! Once the economic expansion is under way again, the Fed can raise rates to fight whatever inflation exists at the time. After all, it's much easier to slow down the economy.
Take a look at Europe. The ECB has been stubborn about inflation and refuses to cut its target rate. Well, take a look at the GDP growth and unemployment figures of European countries - they're much worse than America's. So what if their currency is stronger right now? Would you rather have a super strong currency and high unemployment?
So, let's reconsider the Fed's goals and see if it met them or not in Tuesday's action:
1. To address banking panics - CHECK.
2. Fostering a sound banking system and a healthy economy - CHECK.
3. To be responsive to local liquidity needs - CHECK.
The bottom line: Bravo Ben, Bravo! The Fed acted correctly - it gets an A grade. Had it been sooner, I'd have awarded it an 'A+'.
What grade do you give the Fed?
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Helicopter Ben is flying
The past day and change has been incredible. Yesterday the global markets lost between 5% - 8%. The S&P 500 futures were down about 5% since the markets were closed for MLK day.
Today, the Fed FINALLY reacts: at 8:20 AM they announced an emergency rate cut of 75 bps. This is the first inter-meeting cut since Sept 17, 2001, and the first 75 bps cut since October 1984. We had a jerk reaction with a nice 40-point move on the S&P but a quick sell off. The attached chart indicates this.
So, what the heck is going on? As the Jayhawk's Nest has been saying, the Fed has been slow to react. They have been "behind the curve" so to speak. What's more shocking about the latest cut is that William Poole of St. Louis Fed voted against the Fed. That's right, Bill Poole voted against the cut! He needs to joint he ranks of Kaptur. I'm going to create a special club for these people called the "Block Head Club."
Anyway, this is not the end. The Fed is finally where it should have been 3 - 6 months ago. Now, that it has caught up with reality, i.e. Jan 22, 2008, we can focus on the meeting next week and beyond.
I maintain that the damage done over the past few weeks is so large that we still need another 75 bps in the next few weeks.
For now, Helicopter Ben is flying. I hope he doesn't crash. Would you ride with him?
Sunday, January 20, 2008
The age of hedonic marriage
Taken directly from The Economist (www.economist.com)
"THE INSTITUTION of holy matrimony is sacred if anything is. But nothing, nothing is immune from the profane transformative power of market forces! In a new essay in Cato Unbound, University of Pennsylvania economists Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers show that the traditional marriage of Mike Huckabee's dreams was a contingent adaptation to economic conditions long past. "So what drives modern marriage?" the Penn duo asks...
"THE INSTITUTION of holy matrimony is sacred if anything is. But nothing, nothing is immune from the profane transformative power of market forces! In a new essay in Cato Unbound, University of Pennsylvania economists Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers show that the traditional marriage of Mike Huckabee's dreams was a contingent adaptation to economic conditions long past. "So what drives modern marriage?" the Penn duo asks...
We believe that the answer lies in a shift from the family as a forum for shared production, to shared consumption. In case the language of economic lacks romance, let’s be clearer: modern marriage is about love and companionship. Most things in life are simply better shared with another person: this ranges from the simple pleasures such as enjoying a movie or a hobby together, to shared social ties such as attending the same church, and finally, to the joint project of bringing up children. Returning to the language of economics, the key today is consumption complementarities--activities that are not only enjoyable, but are more enjoyable when shared with a spouse. We call this new model of sharing our lives “hedonic marriage”.
So is marriage doomed? Marriage in which one person specializes in the home while the other person specializes in the market is indeed doomed. The opportunity cost of having women stay out of the labor force is likely to continue to rise — particularly as young women are surpassing men in educational attainment and higher education is becoming more important for market success. The reach of markets will continue to expand, allowing individuals and families to reap the returns to specialization through market-mediated trade with other specialists, rather than requiring a domestic specialist in each home
This "hedonic marriage" business sounds decadent. Can we count on overgrown teenagers seeking only self-actualisation and bound only by puppy love to take seriously their duty to fill the nation's wombs with enough future taxpayers to meet pension liabilities? Probably not! But there's always immigrants. Or pension reform.
Ms Stevenson and Mr Wolfer's last point above reinforces one of my favourite strategies for ramping down the gender war. Men don't need to do more housework and childcare to achieve equality. Women just need to do less. My dad used to change the oil in our family cars. I certainly don't. I suffer exactly zero shame from the fact that I don't even know how. There are specialists who do this sort of thing. Real women's liberation and gender equality will come when social expectations shift enough to allow families to guiltlessly take full advantage of the returns to specialisation."
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Bob Brinker recap
This is really just for me. I ought to start an account at del.iciou.us
http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz.blogspot.com/
http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz.blogspot.com/
Friday, January 18, 2008
UPDATED S&P 500 forecast for 2008
All ye traders: UPDATED S&P 500 forecast for 2008.
We will trade sideways to down and test 1170.
There's still potential for a test of 1550, but only AFTER the 1170.
Enjoy making your broker richer!
We will trade sideways to down and test 1170.
There's still potential for a test of 1550, but only AFTER the 1170.
Enjoy making your broker richer!
Marcy Kaptur is a joke
Are you from Ohio? Is Marcy Kaptur your Congresswoman? You should NOT vote for her. She is an idiot. A complete moron who has no business working in DC representing you. None. It's a shame that people even vote for her. Surely, she'd at least hire someone who does her homework for her and knows who she's talking to - in a formal hearing!
What an idiot.
Click this link and see it for yourself here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwnQZFJ8Q3o
What an idiot.
Click this link and see it for yourself here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwnQZFJ8Q3o
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Fighting the good fight in a bad street: Jim Cramer
Cramer speaks the truth like none other. He really does.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22706231
He knows the financial industry, he knows Wall Street, he's an insider and he's not afraid of speaking out against the cronies who dine in the parlor next door.
See it for yourself.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22706231
He knows the financial industry, he knows Wall Street, he's an insider and he's not afraid of speaking out against the cronies who dine in the parlor next door.
See it for yourself.
Which boat are you in?
"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks." - Warren Buffett
Sometimes it's important and even necessary to ponder the words of the wise. This is a good one. Let me know what you think. You have no choice but to know know what I think, just not today!
Monday, January 14, 2008
2008 Predictions
I ought to jot these down before it's too late. My predictions for 2008:
1. I do not think we will see any negative GDP growth this year, contrary to expectations of a recession.
2. The S&P 500 will retest 1350, at least intraday. At year end, I see the S&P at around 1550, attempting to retest the highs of 2007.
3. Hillary Clinton will win the 2008 election.
4. KU will put on a good show at the NCAA basketball tournament and win the tournament.
5. The Patriots will win the Super Bowl - duh.
6. Notre Dame will have another abominable football season and their coach will be fired.
7. Gold will reach the $1000 / ounce mark.
8. Oil will touch $130 / barrel. The average gas price will reach $4/gallon.
9. Iraq will be stagnant.
10. E-Trade will be acquired.
What are your predictions for 2008? Did I miss anything?
1. I do not think we will see any negative GDP growth this year, contrary to expectations of a recession.
2. The S&P 500 will retest 1350, at least intraday. At year end, I see the S&P at around 1550, attempting to retest the highs of 2007.
3. Hillary Clinton will win the 2008 election.
4. KU will put on a good show at the NCAA basketball tournament and win the tournament.
5. The Patriots will win the Super Bowl - duh.
6. Notre Dame will have another abominable football season and their coach will be fired.
7. Gold will reach the $1000 / ounce mark.
8. Oil will touch $130 / barrel. The average gas price will reach $4/gallon.
9. Iraq will be stagnant.
10. E-Trade will be acquired.
What are your predictions for 2008? Did I miss anything?
The Obstinate Fed
The Jayhawk's Nest believes that the Federal Reserve Board must no longer have the power to govern and dictate overnight interest rates, aka 'Fed funds rate'. Instead, this rate should be determined by the marketplace, in the marketplace. The rationale for this is fairly straight forward and was stated in an earlier post.
Over the past few years of monitoring the financial markets, it has become increasingly clear that the Fed is too slow to react to the current economic environment. In the most present time, for example, the Fed has been extremely slow to provide liquidity to institutions that are running dry. The mortgage debacle that began in the early summer of 2007, and showed signs well ahead of that time, was simply met with a shrug and a couple of blinks from the Fed. Their chief concern amidst the crumbling of credit was inflation.
The cost-push inflation seen over the past few years has been a result of higher oil demand and higher food prices. This cannot be controlled by over night rates as these goods are price inelastic, i.e. they are necessities. Over the long run, they may indeed become price elastic with technological advances and as consumers get more used to the prices. But, in the short run, this inflation should not be the concern. In fact, the higher oil prices have acted as a tax on consumers as their disposable incomes decrease. Indeed this is what the retail sales data shows - a weakening consumer.
And, so, finally last week the chairman of the Fed admitted to a substantial weakening of the economy and promised substantial liquidity, i.e rate cuts. What's he waiting for?! Rates cuts take at least 9 - 12 months to stimulate the economy and sticking to a rigid FOMC meeting schedule to take policy action, is at best, a dumb idea. They ought to act (as they know they should), and they ought to act now.
So, what should be the Fed's new role? Regulating banks and financial institutions as the currently do, only with greater focus, so that the financial companies are not tempted to sin, i.e. get greedy SIVs and other exotic derivative debt instruments. The actions of the masses on Wall Street indeed pose systemic risks to the economy at large as we've seen.
Over the past few years of monitoring the financial markets, it has become increasingly clear that the Fed is too slow to react to the current economic environment. In the most present time, for example, the Fed has been extremely slow to provide liquidity to institutions that are running dry. The mortgage debacle that began in the early summer of 2007, and showed signs well ahead of that time, was simply met with a shrug and a couple of blinks from the Fed. Their chief concern amidst the crumbling of credit was inflation.
The cost-push inflation seen over the past few years has been a result of higher oil demand and higher food prices. This cannot be controlled by over night rates as these goods are price inelastic, i.e. they are necessities. Over the long run, they may indeed become price elastic with technological advances and as consumers get more used to the prices. But, in the short run, this inflation should not be the concern. In fact, the higher oil prices have acted as a tax on consumers as their disposable incomes decrease. Indeed this is what the retail sales data shows - a weakening consumer.
And, so, finally last week the chairman of the Fed admitted to a substantial weakening of the economy and promised substantial liquidity, i.e rate cuts. What's he waiting for?! Rates cuts take at least 9 - 12 months to stimulate the economy and sticking to a rigid FOMC meeting schedule to take policy action, is at best, a dumb idea. They ought to act (as they know they should), and they ought to act now.
So, what should be the Fed's new role? Regulating banks and financial institutions as the currently do, only with greater focus, so that the financial companies are not tempted to sin, i.e. get greedy SIVs and other exotic derivative debt instruments. The actions of the masses on Wall Street indeed pose systemic risks to the economy at large as we've seen.
Kenya
I must admit I was a little surprised to see two comments to my last post - I have readers?!
So, first: Kenya.
Before I move on, I'd like to point out that The Economist was factually wrong in an article titled "More Instability" dated Jan 11, 2008. It does not seem to up anymore. They stated that the chairman of the opposition party ODM was Anyang Nyongo. This humble author sent them an email correcting their error. Anyang Nyongo is the secretary general of ODM; Henry Kosgey is the chairman of ODM. So, even The Economist gets it wrong sometimes. I must admit it's a little disturbing and makes me believe all those who always said the public should always question the media.
Kenya, as you all well know by now, is in a mess. The city I once lived in, Kisumu, looks worse than the pictures of Baghdad. My sources tell me that the city has lost 10 years of development. Most of the shops have been looted and there were some reports about water supplies being cut off. It truly is a complete disaster area. All of this, of course, is very sad.
However, was the unprecedented violence, mass killings, and complete destruction of property necessary?
As you may know, the reason for Kenya's current mess is that the sitting president, Mwai Kibaki, rigged the election in his favor. At this point, just about everyone - including the country's Electoral Commission (ECK) - has stated in some way that the election was not a fair deal. Polls going into the election and the numbers before the rigging show Raila Odinga - the ODM candidate - as the true winner. Kenyan politics, like many other African countries' politics, is tribally dominated. Kibaki is from the Kikuyu tribe (the largest in Kenya), whereas Odinga is from the Luo tribe, which based in Kisumu.
So, what are citizens to do when they see massive injustices take place in broad daylight? I certainly do not believe that killing each other or destroying property will solve anything. The people's reponse in Kenya, I believe, are a by product of lack of corruption and lack of education.
In a corrupt society, the average citizen does not get the protection or rights he or she deserves. This was evident in the killings and destruction seen across the country. Furthermore, it is the poor that continue to suffer the most as they are unable to protect themselves and are the most vulnerable in very way - politically and economically. Additionally, due to a lack of understanding of the consequences of revolting in the manner they did, it is the poor who will suffer the most as the economy crumbles and unemployment soars.
I have been rather distraught and shocked at the country's reaction to the election. While some violence may be expected, the violence seen in the past weeks is at a level not seen since the fight for independence. The country, as it currently stands, is highly divided and its future remains unknown. Kenya was one of the best countries in the African continent for several decades - with a booming economy, relatively stable political environment, improving living standards for its citizens, and in many other ways. The current events have rocked questions the country's temperament.
Unfortunately, there is no end in sight to the madness. Hopefully there will be one sooner than later.
So, first: Kenya.
Before I move on, I'd like to point out that The Economist was factually wrong in an article titled "More Instability" dated Jan 11, 2008. It does not seem to up anymore. They stated that the chairman of the opposition party ODM was Anyang Nyongo. This humble author sent them an email correcting their error. Anyang Nyongo is the secretary general of ODM; Henry Kosgey is the chairman of ODM. So, even The Economist gets it wrong sometimes. I must admit it's a little disturbing and makes me believe all those who always said the public should always question the media.
Kenya, as you all well know by now, is in a mess. The city I once lived in, Kisumu, looks worse than the pictures of Baghdad. My sources tell me that the city has lost 10 years of development. Most of the shops have been looted and there were some reports about water supplies being cut off. It truly is a complete disaster area. All of this, of course, is very sad.
However, was the unprecedented violence, mass killings, and complete destruction of property necessary?
As you may know, the reason for Kenya's current mess is that the sitting president, Mwai Kibaki, rigged the election in his favor. At this point, just about everyone - including the country's Electoral Commission (ECK) - has stated in some way that the election was not a fair deal. Polls going into the election and the numbers before the rigging show Raila Odinga - the ODM candidate - as the true winner. Kenyan politics, like many other African countries' politics, is tribally dominated. Kibaki is from the Kikuyu tribe (the largest in Kenya), whereas Odinga is from the Luo tribe, which based in Kisumu.
So, what are citizens to do when they see massive injustices take place in broad daylight? I certainly do not believe that killing each other or destroying property will solve anything. The people's reponse in Kenya, I believe, are a by product of lack of corruption and lack of education.
In a corrupt society, the average citizen does not get the protection or rights he or she deserves. This was evident in the killings and destruction seen across the country. Furthermore, it is the poor that continue to suffer the most as they are unable to protect themselves and are the most vulnerable in very way - politically and economically. Additionally, due to a lack of understanding of the consequences of revolting in the manner they did, it is the poor who will suffer the most as the economy crumbles and unemployment soars.
I have been rather distraught and shocked at the country's reaction to the election. While some violence may be expected, the violence seen in the past weeks is at a level not seen since the fight for independence. The country, as it currently stands, is highly divided and its future remains unknown. Kenya was one of the best countries in the African continent for several decades - with a booming economy, relatively stable political environment, improving living standards for its citizens, and in many other ways. The current events have rocked questions the country's temperament.
Unfortunately, there is no end in sight to the madness. Hopefully there will be one sooner than later.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
More to come
Oh, how the days go by and I don't write. I have so many things to share with you, it's not even funny.
So, where do I begin? Well, how about this. I'll list the issues I'd like to talk about and then over the next few days I'll talk about each one.
1. Kenya - the mess it is.
2. The US elections
3. The Federal Reserve and the financial markets
4. 2008 in general and a few predictions
5. 25 years as a human
6. Harry Potter
7. Something novel
You better have something to share with me too - how about your time as I cover these topics from coast to coast, from the east to the west, from shining star to shining planet, it's all coming your way, right here, same place, same time. Stay tuned...
So, where do I begin? Well, how about this. I'll list the issues I'd like to talk about and then over the next few days I'll talk about each one.
1. Kenya - the mess it is.
2. The US elections
3. The Federal Reserve and the financial markets
4. 2008 in general and a few predictions
5. 25 years as a human
6. Harry Potter
7. Something novel
You better have something to share with me too - how about your time as I cover these topics from coast to coast, from the east to the west, from shining star to shining planet, it's all coming your way, right here, same place, same time. Stay tuned...
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