Condemning Cowards

I would like to take this opportunity to condemn the cowardly acts of the terrorists in Pakistan that led to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. In a sad sense it comes as no shock that she was murdered by Islamic fundamentalists. They had already tried to kill her at least twice before and failed. It is very unfortunate that these violent cowards know no way in which to face a problem and simply resort to mass injury, mass destruction, and nothing short of inciting and executing terror. You cannot fight fire with fire and this is precisely what the terrorists do not understand. I have come to think of them as modern day savages.

Bhutto was a moderate who was the hope of many in Pakistan. She was the hope who would create change for the better - economically and politically. For the world, she was a better candidate for her fight against terrorism within Pakistan. (I strongly believe that Pakistan is a key breeding ground for Islamic fundamentalism, i.e. terrorism.) Yet, the modern day savages do not see that. Instead, to them, the song of brain-washed wackos continues to ring.

Don't let the song of the brain-washed wacko savages ring in your ear.

Location, location, location

First off - Merry Christmas everyone!

A shout out to Reno Ranger in Seattle, Washington - thanks for your response to my last blog! I'm having a Starbucks Grande Chai Latte just for you man - help keep the Seattle economy going.

I'm now on my way back to the frozen tundra of northern Indiana. Sad. Very sad. It is currently 80 degrees, sunny, and absolutely beautiful here in West Palm Beach. As you may have guessed, I'm at the airport, PBI. It is surprisingly busy and crowded for Christmas day. We had a wonderful and relaxing time by the beach as we watched surfers take advantage of some rather large waves (large for us).

The entire time I was here, I kept thinking to myself, why the heck do I live in the cold?! You see, America's a great country with choices. Yet, I choose to live in the frigid ice-covered permafrost of northern Indiana! Irrational human I am. Well, perhaps the beach would not be as glorious if I did in fact live here.

Why do you live where you do?

Florida flight

How do you know you're on a flight to Florida? 80% of the passengers have one of the following: a wheelchair, a walking stick, balding or very gray hair... i.e. they're old by most definitions. Seriously, it's quite amazing. We're at the Cleveland Hopkins waiting to board our flight and there are a disproportionately more retired / old citizens than usual. Just interesting, that's all!

A new addition!

Upon the verbal request of one of my more devoted followers, I've finally added a counter (on the right). Now I can finally tell just how popular this blog is. So far, not so good. But then again, I'm not really writing for a particular audience. It is nice, though, to have feedback.

Tomorrow I'm headed to sunny, wonderful, beautiful, and most excellent Chad land. The country of pregnant chads, bad ballots, where all sorts of funny things (corruption?) took place in 2000 and brought this lunatic president - Bush - into power. In case you're unfamilar with this circuitous language, it is Florida of which I speak.

I have been thinking of a few things, but I'll have to save it for a later post. In the mean time, if you're bored and hate your job, read this.

Probability of being you

Have you wondered about your odds of being who you are? Since I feel somewhat unhappy, I should remind myself of the odds of being where I am. I hesitate to give out all my personal information, so I'll make up some generalizations.

Odds of being born as an American about two to three decades ago: 230,000,000 / 4,500,000,000 = 5%
Odds of being born to a family that is not divorced, is happy, and generally functional: 50%
Odds of having average or better financial means: 50%
Odds of having a college education: 25%

Total odds based on these factors alone = 0.3125%

So, there was a 0.3% chance that I would be born as me. In other words, if I were given the chance to be conceived again, i.e. to become a random egg and sperm again, would I take it? Of course not. Well, then, I shouldn't really complain, should I now?!

What are your odds of being you?

"And if I count all my blessings, I get a smile on my face
Still it's hard to find faith" -- Sugarland

Rants and raves of a hopeless operations associate

As you may know, I thoroughly hate my job. It's absolutely useless. At the end of the day, I hardly achieve anything. In fact, in theory since I'm a shareholder of the company, I should either ask for a drastic pay cut or resign altogether knowing that eliminating my job makes the company better off financially and therefore increases the value of my handful of shares. My job can be done by a monkey and it shocks me how well I'm compensated for it. Essentially, it's a computer operations job and involves pressing a few buttons every so often to run programs written by programmers in-house, logging the results into an Excel spreadsheet, attempting to isolate the problem if one occurs and then either solving it or contacting the right person to solve it, running database queries (SQL), and a rare bit of self-initiated analytical work. It makes me wonder how many people out there are in my position and if most people's job is like mine, except that they make it seems majestic and the world's panacea. I do wonder.

At the same time, I do feel very fortunate to have gotten the job, given my circumstances. I know I was praying fervently (literally, to the Judeo-Christian God in case you're curious) when I wanted the job. Now that I have it, perhaps I don't appreciate it as much. But perhaps that's part of being human - to want to grow. I've been here six months... we'll see how much longer I can hold onto this sinking ship. After all, they did call me Anchor for a reason.

A Few Responses

And now for the responses to the Dream Job post below.

1. Hard attributes

a) I don't really think these are as important, necessarily, as the soft attributes. Often, I think it's the people around you that may make a place worth your time and energy. However, several layers of management certainly play a role. Having worked primarily at large, overly-structured organizations, I only have one perspective, and my conclusion is the proverbial response most economists will give you: it depends. At my current job, the organization and its structure is rather annoying - but that has more to do with the people than the structure of the organization. I believe I would like like to try an organization in which there are relatively few layers between the big boss and me.

b) Geography - ideally, of course, a beach and mountains within close proximity would be best. If I had to choose one topography over the other, the beach would it as I love to scuba dive.

c) Company size: not a priority, but too large and you're another minion; too small and the organization may not be firing on all cylinders. But, then again, Warren Buffett's Omaha headquarters has no more than a handful of people - I believe it's about 15 if not fewer.

d) Local vs Global: Of course, a company with a global reach is much more dynamic and has the potential for a far greater positive (or negative) impact. But, local companies have the ability to reach out to individuals with faces and people you may know. If preference is a must - it would be global as therein lies growth opportunities, and most importantly, challenges that are fun and interesting. For example, trying to understand the mindset of Indian consumers in northern India would require a study of the region, its history and the mindset of the area's residents, along with countless others. Such situations present unique opportunities that would allow me to learn and grow on a personal level. But, this does not mean local companies do not pose such opportunities. Rather, given the world in which we live, it is increasingly important to have a global vision.

e) The work environment. This is a tough one. I want an environment that fosters independent thinking, forces you to think analytically, is accepting of new out-of-the-box ideas, and one in which my decisions will have some impact or meaning to the society at large. For instance, in one of my former jobs, I did a lot of statistical data work. The end result - after about 2 years, about 50% of my work was ever used in a meaningful way. Of that 50%, not more than 10% had any sort of impact - on anyone - in my opinion.

f) The manager. I've had one super manager - Mike Gibson - and one absolutely horrible manager (currently my manager). The nice thing about the latter is that I now know how not to treat employees and what not and never to do. The bottom line: I dislike having a boss. If I do have one, which more than likely is always going to be the case at least for the foreseeable future, I would like them to be more of a mentor than a boss. Mike G is awesome, for instance. I have a tremendous amount of respect for the man: humble, super intelligent, unselfish, good-hearted, high-spirited, helpful... great guy. It's my hope that I'll get someone like him again and be able to develop a longer lasting professional relationship that is meaningful to both parties.

g) Coworkers. This a *huge* portion of it. I think coworkers ought to be happy about their work. They should not only display enthusiasm for the work, but give it their best. Some qualities include: personable, unselfish, intelligent, helpful, friendly, caring, enthusiastic (about life in general), dedicated, and high integrity. Adam, for example, gets a shout out - a great example of a great colleague.

h) Salary. This is tough. Tough, tough, tough. Let's face it, there's no amount that's too much. Yet, there is a minimum threshold. We all need to live and life is expensive. Period. No one needs $10 million a year - yes all you corrupt CEOs who eat shareholder money like it's ice-cream (for you it is, for us it's blood, sweat, and tears). But, at the same time, earning $20,000 a year is not going to cut it, even in Guthrie, OK. Factor a family of five, mortgage payments, car payments, college tuition, emergency funds... it's an endless list. So, salary is an important factor for me. As far as amounts go, however, it's silly to write any down. But, a decent salary that allows a family to live comfortably is nice to have, i.e. you should be able to eat out once a month, take a two week vacation if desired, own a home large enough for your family, and be able to donate to charity if you choose to do so. You get the picture - it's not a factor to discount.

Finally, I think every job has its ups and downs. But, what do you tell yourself during the down swings? Is that when you come to a realization that what you're doing is meaningless, or is that when you realize that you have an important job function in society and that if you didn't do your job, there were would be negative consequences?

Good-bye Fed Funds Rate

I have come to a new conclusion today: The Federal Reserve should not have the ability to control the overnight lending rate and the discount rate. Rather, these rates should be determined in the marketplace. This is certainly not an original idea, but it simply makes sense in today's global financial markets. The Fed should, however, maintain full control of banking regulation.

Yesterday was a great example of the power a small group has in controlling the destinies of millions of people. The markets were expecting a 50 basis points (.50%) cut in the Federal funds rate, which is the overnight lending rate banks charge each other. Instead the Fed delivered a 25 basis points cut. The logic behind having the markets determine this is that the market is made up of countless individuals - generally very smart people who are a lot quicker acting and thinking that the economists at the Fed. We already use the marketplace mechanism to determine the price of commodities, which includes food (wheat and milk for instance), oil, lumber, and metals such as gold. In fact, just about any commodity you can think of has its price determined in the market - it's not only about stock prices. And, we also have a market for predicting the Federal Reserve's moves - the fed funds futures market. And then, there is the bond market which determines interest rate on government lending - short and long term.

The problem with the current system whereby a small group at the Federal Reserve determine the rates is a lack of transparency. The marketplace is always trying to guess what the Federal Reserve's next move will be. The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, constantly watches the marketplace to determine what they should do, but often lags significantly or acts in a manner that is unexplained. Yesterday's move, for instance, was made under the guise of inflationary fears. I have news for the smart people at the Fed: there is no indication of inflation. People don't have money to pay their mortgages, and many are worried about their home values falling faster and quicker than ever. The consumer is weak - this is not news, even to the Fed. Higher oil prices have acted like a tax - taking away more money from people's disposable income. This has helped curb inflation, ironically.

If the overnight rates were determined by the marketplace, I believe that the current credit crunch would be a lot farther ahead in terms of being solved than at the current pace. The reason is that the markets are lot more dynamic and quick acting than the Fed, which only meets 8 times a year. The overnight lending rate would have come down at the beginning of the summer and the current elevated LIBOR rates would probably not have been an issue.

One way in which this could work is that the Fed would control liquidity based on the market rates. So, open market operations would continue as they do now, except that they would use the market determined rates as the targets and thereby add or remove liquidity accordingly.

I am probably missing a plethora of important technical details, but that's for the so-called experts to sort out. The basic idea is that we need a lot more transparency. The financial markets have become almost a bank for most Americans as most savings through various financial products, e.g. 401Ks, IRAs, and many others, are in securities whose prices are determined in the marketplace. These prices fluctuate dramatically when the Fed makes unexpected moves and hurts the very people it is trying to help. Simply put, to have an organization that is:

a) not transparent enough,
b) constantly lagging in its ability to react to the current economic environment,
c) has tremendous power in determining individual wealth effects and individual financial decisions,

is simply not acceptable in today's extremely fast moving global financial markets.

I hate the markets

I hate the markets. Hate them. With a passion too.

I don't know why I'm always tempted to go back to them everyday. I've been here before and I always tell myself this is it, I'm done. Then, before I know it, I'm back. It's an addiction. I must stop this crap and adhere to buy and hold and homework.

No more futures.

No more options (after I get out out of my current positions).

No forex.

No derivative trades.

The only participation in the financial markets will be through the use of stocks, and only going long with sound theses.

I need to quit being a dumbass.

Your Dream Job

An excellent article about finding your dream job from BusinessWeek can be found here.

Key points (direct quotes):

1. Your task is first to understand what you're looking for, and decide which elements in your wish list are most critical for you; and then to make and execute a plan to go out and find that job. The very worst way to land a dream job is to wait for it to find you.

2. Think about your wishes in two separate categories. In your first category, you'll list the "hard" attributes you're hoping to find in a dream job—company size, industry, job function, local or global enterprise, level of management, division vs. headquarters role, etc. [In the second category list the "soft" attributes - below].

3. What makes a work environment appealing for you, including items like: How mature an industry do I want to work in?

4. What kind of manager do I want?

5. What kinds of people do I prefer to work around? Some of us need, above all, to work with smart and intellectually curious people who zip through the New York Times Sunday crossword over a half-cup of coffee, while others need a friendly, supportive team and couldn't care less about intellectual heft.

6. How important is salary? Would other forms of compensation, from time-off to business travel to your favorite location to tuition reimbursement, affect the equation? How do you define "well compensated" at this stage of your career, and how important is that to you?

Or you could take the ole Warren Buffett approach and say "Which job would I do even if no one paid me for it?"

I'll answer these questions soon!

Mmmm, I want...mmmm, yes, I like!

This morning I got an email from Costco with the subject "Saving the best for last". If I were a girl, I would demand this gift. If I didn't get it, I'd cry.

You can view the gift here.

Absurd!

Loopy Lupin

I've been reading the third book in the Harry Potter series: Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. In an effort to keep my devotees fulfilled, I'll attempt to forecast what happens.

I'm currently almost half way through the book. Thus far, Sirius Black - the prisoner of Azkaban who epsconded - has somehow made it into Hogwarts. A few questions loom:

1. Who exactly is he and what did he do? The word on the street is that he wanted to be second in control after you-know-who. Moreover, he wants to kill Harry Potter. It is clear that he does not kill Harry Potter - that would end the series. Unfortunately, I also know that Black appears in later books - so, what happens to him in this book? I'm utterly confuzzled on the matter.

2. Who let Black into Hogwarts? Professor Severus Snape alluded to the new Professor Lupin. I think there might be something there. While demonstrating the boggart to his students, Lupin did not allow Harry to participate because Lupin feared the boggart would turn into you-know-who as it takes the form of the person its victim is most fearful of. So, my conjecture is that you-know-who resides in Lupin and that if Harry had been allowed to participate, the Boggart would have turned into Lupin. The irony, though, is that Harry does not fear you-know-who, but rather he fears the dementors. Lupin had simply assumed that Harry heard the dark one.

3. So, what about Lupin? I think he will be destroyed by the end of this book.

That's all for now!

My needs... extended

This is what I want for Christmas this year: best-thing-ever click here to see it.

Tower, Beechcraft Baron 58 ready for take-off

I'm back for a second consecutive dose - whoa!

As some of my devotees (is that blasphemous?) know, I love to fly. The only problem is that I've never taken flying lessons or been instructed. I've learned to fly all on my own. I used to crash a lot initially, but thankfully due to the God-given powers I have in Microsoft Flight Simulator X, I emerge alive every time. For a very long time, I only knew how to take off and control the aircraft in the air. Last night, I finally managed to land safely - twice! In case you're wondering, I flew from Chicago's O'Hare to South Bend Regional Airport, and made a second flight from Kansas City International to Forbes Field in Topeka, Kansas. By the way, I flew a Beechcraft Baron 58. Lovely, just lovely. Now only if my most lovliest wife would allow me to purchase a gaming machine, I'd be closer to heaven! And here I was going off on how I have everything I need. The key is need. I simply just want a gaming machine!

On a more serious note, I encourage you to read this article on Bush's new plan to freeze certain subprime mortgage rates to avoid complete default: click here.

Thanks again for reading. Current temperatures remain low at 29 degrees farenheight, overcast skies and winds calm. You are now free to leave this blog.

A few notes

It's really quite strange how I just vanish. One day I'm here then I'm gone. But, I do return. I'm glad most things in life are not this way, i.e. disappearing at whim.

I've learned many things since I last posted. What I haven't figured out, however, is what this blog is really for. Is it for me to post any of my personal random thoughts? Or to focus on a particular topic? As the ShadowTrader (Peter) says, "Vot is the purpose of this?!"

An event of note: Kansas football. 11-1 Kansas has finally made it into a BCS Bowl game for the first time in 69 years. They're playing the Virginia Tech Hokies.

Over the past two days, I've been pondering changing career tracks completely and trying out education, i.e. becoming a high school teacher. It's a very strange thought for me as I've never really envisioned myself teaching 16 - 18 year olds. There are numerous hurdles associated with teaching, but I wonder if any of them are legitimate concerns for me or simply egotistical ones.

Something else I've been pondering: free will. It's a much discussed and debated topic amongst philosophers and theologians. The gist of it is that we all have free will, granted to us by God. We can choose to accept God or we can choose to not accept Him. I think free will is a great thing and allows us to truly become the humans we are as opposed to robots controlled by our creator. However, I think we ought to have the ability to choose to turn off free will after we have decided to follow a particular ideology. Of course, we'd have the ability to turn it back on too. But, to limit mindless play, you should only be allowed to change it no more than 2 or 3 times during your lifetime.

Moving on. Christmas is near and it's frigid outside, here in South Bend: 21 degrees at 2:00 pm EST. I'm coming to thoroughly dislike the time leading up to Christmas in America. Why? Because it has no meaning anymore than a gigantic season of worrying about getting stuff for people. Give gifts to the needy - great. Volunteer and help the poor - lovely. But worrying about buying this or that for people who already have more than enough is beyond my comprehension. Personally, I have everything - yes, you read that right, everything, I need at this time in my life. Accumulating more stuff - aka junk - only makes my already complicated life even more so. I might be the only who feels this way, but I think if you're thinking of giving people who already have plenty of stuff more stuff, forget about it. Rather, donate your time or money on their behalf to a needy cause, and then tell them you did it thinking of them. For instance, if a friend is passionate about animals, volunteer to clean the animal shelter; or, if a friend believes in a particular cause or supports a particular charity, donate your time or resource to it and tell them about it on Christmas. Americans probably give each other more stuff than any other country, yet divorce rates remain high, overall happiness is lower than many industrialized nations, the list goes on. So, the bottom line: stuff does not equal love, happiness, or unselfishness. It probably just propels the desire for more stuff.

And, finally, on a much lighter note. The next time you come across statistics, think of the following:

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. " ~Aaron Levenstein

Of course, do have a Merry Christmas!