Just a Note

  

Golfing on a Battle Site

 

The picture speaks for itself - a dude golfing at a Chancellorsville battle site. I really will not understand some people! 

Chancellorsville

 

At this site, a soldier was killed every second for five staight hours. It was an extremely bloody battle. The Confederates, however, maneuvered extremely well. Although outnumbered by Union troops, the brilliant General Thomas J Jackson helped bring victory to the Confederates. It is also here that Gen. Jackson was killed by his own men (from North Carolina, by the way!).

Date(s): April 30-May 6, 1863

Principal Commanders: Maj. Gen. Joseph Hooker [US]; Gen. Robert E. Lee and Maj. Gen. Thomas J. Jackson [CS]

Forces Engaged: 154,734 total (US 97,382; CS 57,352)

Estimated Casualties: 24,000 total (US 14,000; CS 10,000)

Result: Confederate victory - Lee's greatest victory?

* Above stats taken from http://www.cr.nps.gov/hps/abpp/battles/va032.htm 

Wilderness

 

There are two important Civil War battlesites between DC and Charlottesville, VA. After several months of promising myself I'd stop by one day, I finally did. This is one of the sites where the Battle at Wilderness took place - Saunders Field. Please note that the vegetation was extremely dense during the war, which made it an extremely difficult fight.

Battle dates: May 5-7, 1864 (I.e. after Gettysburg, towards the end of the war).

Forces Engaged: 162,920 total (US 101,895; CS 61,025)

Estimated Casualties: 29,800 total (US 18,400; CS 11,400)

Result: Inconclusive

*Above stats from http://www.cr.nps.gov/hps/ABPP/battles/va046.htm 

Here It Is - Day of Love

Dear devoted blog reader,

Merry Saint Valentine's day!

With lots of like,
A Jayhawk

DJIA - 2/11/2006

 


Here's the DJIA 6 months chart. Things to note:

1. Negative divergence on MACD, RSI indicated by the blue lines ("Take Note"). This indicates a downward bias and indeed that's what we've seen over the past 3 weeks.

2. Notice the 10,700 - 11,000 tight range over the past 3 months.

3. 50-day MA tested on 02/10/2006 intraday.

4. Note the support and resistance... the 10,730 support also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, i.e. 10700 is very critical!

So what now?

Let's look at fundamentals for a moment.

1. Profits - a few misses on the tech side, GOOG, AMZN, QSII.

2. Fed - doesn't look like they'll stop here even though the economy is exhibiting weakness - weaker GDP and productivity numbers.

3. Oil, Iran, Iraq - it's a mess. There's fear.

4. The yield curve - it is flat and NOT inverted - all y'all bears out there who keep saying it's inverted, get your fact right! Here are the most recent yields from Yahoo Finance:

Maturity Yield

3 Month 4.33
6 Month 4.48
2 Year 4.67
5 Year 4.58
10 Year 4.58
30 Year 4.55

The spread between the 3 month and 30 year US treasury is +22 basis points.
6 Month & 30 Year spread: +7 basis points.
2 Year & 30 Year spread: -12 basis points.

At worst it's inverted between 2 year and 30 year. But when you consider the 6 month, it's not. So, I'd say it relatively flat.

But, the bias certainly seems towards inverting. What does this mean? There's more confidence in longer term bonds than there is in shorter term bonds, i.e. investors are more confident of the US economy longer term than shorter term.

So, here's my take: I think the range continues, perhaps with a downward bias for the near-term. We could make it back to 11K but I don't see any reason to push above it - I expect 11,000 to continue to be a resistance, with 10,700 a near-term support. 

And the winner is...

...Pittsburg Steelers!

But can someone explain the "world champion" title to me please?! "World" seems to imply more than just the United States. However, the Steelers haven't played any team outside of the United States! I think the rest of the world should sue the Superbowl for misusing the title "world champion"!